Afrexai Revenue Forecasting

# Revenue Forecasting Engine

Build accurate, data-driven revenue forecasts your board and investors actually trust.

## What This Does

Generates a complete revenue forecasting model covering:

1. **Pipeline-Weighted Forecast** — Apply stage-specific close rates to your current pipeline
2. **Cohort Analysis** — Track revenue by customer cohort with expansion/contraction/churn
3. **Scenario Modeling** — Bear/base/bull projections with probability weighting
4. **Seasonality Adjustments** — Monthly coefficients based on your historical patterns
5. **Leading Indicators** — Track signals that predict revenue 60-90 days out

## Instructions

When the user asks for a revenue forecast, follow this framework:

### Step 1: Gather Inputs
Ask for (or use available data):
- Current MRR/ARR
- Pipeline by stage with deal values
- Historical close rates by stage
- Average sales cycle length
- Net revenue retention rate
- Expansion revenue %

### Step 2: Build the Pipeline Forecast

**Stage-Weighted Model:**

| Stage | Probability | Weighted Value |
|-------|------------|----------------|
| Discovery | 10% | Deal × 0.10 |
| Demo/Eval | 25% | Deal × 0.25 |
| Proposal Sent | 50% | Deal × 0.50 |
| Negotiation | 75% | Deal × 0.75 |
| Verbal Commit | 90% | Deal × 0.90 |
| Closed Won | 100% | Deal × 1.00 |

**Adjustment factors:**
- Deal age penalty: -5% per month past avg cycle
- Champion risk: -20% if no identified champion
- Budget confirmed: +10% if budget is allocated
- Competitive deal: -15% if competitor identified

### Step 3: Cohort Revenue Model

Track each monthly cohort:
```
Month 0: New MRR from cohort
Month 1: Retained MRR × (1 - monthly churn rate)
Month 3: Add expansion revenue (avg 2-5% monthly for healthy SaaS)
Month 6: Steady-state retention rate applies
Month 12: Mature cohort — use net revenue retention
```

**Benchmarks by company stage:**
| Metric | Seed | Series A | Series B+ |
|--------|------|----------|-----------|
| Gross Churn | 3-5%/mo | 2-3%/mo | 1-2%/mo |...

# Revenue Forecasting Engine

Build board-ready revenue forecasts your CFO won't tear apart.

## What You Get

- **Pipeline-weighted forecast** with deal-age penalties and champion risk adjustments
- **Cohort analysis** tracking expansion, contraction, and churn by customer vintage
- **Bear/base/bull scenarios** with probability-weighted expected values
- **Seasonality coefficients** for B2B SaaS, ecommerce, and professional services
- **Leading indicators dashboard** — signals that predict revenue 60-90 days before it hits

## Who This Is For

- Founders building investor updates
- Revenue leaders presenting to the board
- Finance teams tired of spreadsheet spaghetti
- Anyone who needs a forecast that's more than "last month + 10%"

## Key Frameworks

- Stage-weighted pipeline with 6 adjustment factors
- Cohort revenue model with benchmarks by company stage (Seed → Series B+)
- Scenario analysis with red flag detection (pipeline coverage < 3x, concentration risk, stalling deals)
- Revenue recognition guidance (SaaS, services, usage-based, annual prepay)

## Install

```
clawhub install afrexai-revenue-forecasting
```

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Built by [AfrexAI](https://afrexai-cto.github.io/context-packs/) — AI context packs for operators who ship.

**More tools:**
- [AI Revenue Leak Calculator](https://afrexai-cto.github.io/ai-revenue-calculator/) — Find where you're losing money
- [Context Packs](https://afrexai-cto.github.io/context-packs/) — Industry-specific AI agent configs ($47/pack)
- [Agent Setup Wizard](https://afrexai-cto.github.io/agent-setup/) — Deploy your first AI agent in 15 minutes

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