polymarket-wallet-xray

# Polymarket Wallet X-Ray

Analyze **any** Polymarket wallet's trading patterns, skill level, and edge detection.

**No authentication needed.** Queries Polymarket's public CLOB API directly.

**Inspired by:** [The Autopsy: How to Read the Mind of a Polymarket Whale](https://x.com/thejayden/status/2020891572389224878) by [@thejayden](https://x.com/thejayden)

> This skill implements the forensic trading analysis framework developed by @thejayden. Read the original post to understand the philosophy behind Time Profitable, hedge checks, bot detection, and accumulation signals.

> **This is an analysis tool, not a trading signal.** The skill returns forensic metrics for ANY Polymarket wallet — your agent uses them to UNDERSTAND traders, learn patterns, and make informed decisions. This is for education and research, not for blindly copying positions.

## ⚠️ Important Disclaimer

**Past performance does not guarantee future results.** A wallet's historical metrics tell you about:
- ✅ How they traded *in the past*
- ✅ Their *historical* win rate and entry quality
- ❌ NOT whether their strategy will work going forward

**Why copying is risky:**
- Market conditions change constantly
- A trader's edge might have been luck, timing, or specific to historical events
- Slippage and fees erode thin edges to zero
- Other traders copying the same strategy destroy the edge

**Use this skill to:**
- ✅ Learn what skilled traders look like (metrics, behavior)
- ✅ Identify potential anomalies (bots, arbitrageurs)
- ✅ Understand trader psychology (FOMO vs. discipline)
- ✅ Inform your own strategy decisions

**DO NOT use this skill to:**
- ❌ Automatically copytrade wallets
- ❌ Expect to replicate their returns
- ❌ Trade on these metrics without understanding why
- ❌ Risk significant capital on patterns you don't understand

## When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when you want to:
- **Learn how skilled traders operate** — What metrics separate winners from losers?
- **Unders...

# Polymarket Wallet X-Ray

X-ray any Polymarket wallet — trading patterns, skill level, and edge detection.

## Files

- **SKILL.md** — User documentation, quick start, usage examples, troubleshooting
- **wallet_xray.py** — Main analysis script
- **scripts/status.py** — Portfolio status helper

## Quick Start

```bash
# Analyze a wallet
python wallet_xray.py 0x1234...abcd

# Analyze wallet for specific market
python wallet_xray.py 0x1234...abcd "Bitcoin"

# Output as JSON
python wallet_xray.py 0x1234...abcd --json

# Compare two wallets
python wallet_xray.py 0xaaa... 0xbbb... --compare
```

## Installation

```bash
pip install simmer-sdk requests
export SIMMER_API_KEY="sk_live_..."
```

## Metrics Computed

- **Time Profitable** — % of time wallet was not underwater
- **Win Rate** — % of trades profitable
- **Entry Quality** — Average slippage from optimal price
- **Bot Detection** — Trading speed pattern analysis
- **Arbitrage Edge** — Combined YES+NO average < $1.00
- **Risk Profile** — Drawdowns and volatility
- **Recommendation** — Should you copytrade this wallet?

## Implementation Notes

The skill fetches trades from the Simmer API, which aggregates Polymarket data. It then:

1. Tracks positions over time (YES/NO shares and cost basis)
2. Realizes P&Ls when positions are closed
3. Computes statistical metrics (mean, stdev, etc.)
4. Generates a recommendation score

All metrics are based on @thejayden's "Autopsy of a Polymarket Whale" framework.

## Attribution

Inspired by [@thejayden](https://x.com/thejayden)'s forensic trading analysis post:
https://x.com/thejayden/status/2020891572389224878