polymarket-executor

# Polymarket Executor — Multi-Strategy Trading Bot

## 🎯 WHAT IT DOES

Autonomous trading bot for Polymarket prediction markets.

Starts in **paper mode** (simulated capital, zero risk) to validate strategy performance before deploying real money. Reads configuration from `learned_config.json` (adjusted automatically by `polymarket-optimizer` every 6 hours).

**Markets covered:**
- ✅ Crypto (BTC, ETH, altcoins — price targets, daily/weekly)
- ✅ Politics (elections, policy, polls, government decisions)
- ✅ Sports (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, Soccer, UFC, Tennis, Golf)
- ✅ Economics (Fed rates, CPI, jobs reports, GDP)
- ✅ Technology (Apple, Tesla, Google, IPOs, launches)
- ✅ Entertainment (Oscars, Emmys, box office)
- ✅ Weather (hurricanes, temperature records, climate events)
- ✅ Miscellaneous (all binary outcome markets)

**Total markets scanned:** 500–5000+ per cycle

---

## ⚡ QUICK START

### Paper Mode (Default — No credentials needed)

```bash
cd /data/.openclaw/workspace/skills/polymarket-executor
python3 polymarket_executor.py
```

Expected output:
```
============================================================
POLYMARKET EXECUTOR v2.0.0
============================================================
[MODE] 📄 PAPER TRADING (simulated capital: $100.00)
[CONFIG] Loaded learned_config.json
[GAMMA] Fetched 2,341 markets
[SCAN] Scanning 500 markets with 50 workers...
[SCAN] Found 8 opportunities
[TRADE] PAPER: parity_arbitrage | YES+NO = $0.94 | Edge: 6.3%
[PORTFOLIO] Capital: $100.00 | Open: 2 | P&L: +$0.00
```

### Live Mode (After paper validation)

```bash
export PAPER_MODE=false
export POLYMARKET_API_KEY="your_key"
export POLYMARKET_SECRET="your_secret"
export POLYMARKET_PASSPHRASE="your_passphrase"
export POLYMARKET_CAPITAL=50.0
python3 polymarket_executor.py
```

---

## 🔥 STRATEGIES

### 1. Parity Arbitrage — Risk: ZERO ✅
**YES + NO prices don't sum to $1.00 → buy both → guaranteed profit**

```
YES: $0.45 + NO: $0.49 = $0.94 total
Buy both → payout: $1...

# Polymarket Executor 🎯

**Autonomous multi-strategy trading bot for Polymarket prediction markets**

Part of the **Wesley Agent Ecosystem** — built for OpenClaw autonomous AI agent.

---

## What It Does

Scans all Polymarket markets 24/7 for profitable opportunities using 3 strategies:

| Strategy | Risk | Win Rate | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parity Arbitrage | ZERO | 100% | 5–20/day |
| Tail-End Trading | Very Low | 95–98% | 10–30/day |
| Logical Arbitrage | Low | 90–95% | 2–10/day |

**Markets:** Crypto, Politics, Sports, Economics, Tech, Entertainment, Weather — everything on Polymarket.

---

## Key Features

- 📄 **Paper mode** — validates strategy before risking real money
- 🧠 **Adaptive** — reads `learned_config.json` updated by optimizer every 6h
- ⚖️ **Kelly Criterion** — optimal position sizing per trade
- 🛡️ **Circuit breakers** — auto-halts at -15% daily loss
- 📱 **Telegram alerts** — real-time scan reports and trade notifications
- 🔄 **Self-improving** — writes `performance_metrics.json` for optimizer

---

## Files

```
polymarket-executor/
├── SKILL.md                    ← OpenClaw integration
├── README.md                   ← This file
├── CONFIGURATION.md            ← Setup guide
├── SYSTEMD_SETUP.md            ← Run as system service
└── polymarket_executor.py      ← Main trading bot
```

**Runtime files (auto-created in WORKSPACE):**
```
paper_trades.json               ← Paper trade log
portfolio.json                  ← Capital & positions
performance_metrics.json        ← Strategy stats
learned_config.json             ← Optimizer parameters
live_trades.jsonl               ← Real trades (live mode)
```

---

## Quick Start

```bash
# Paper mode — no credentials needed
python3 polymarket_executor.py

# Live mode — after paper validation
export PAPER_MODE=false
export POLYMARKET_API_KEY=...
export POLYMARKET_SECRET=...
export POLYMARKET_PASSPHRASE=...
python3 polymarket_executor.py
```

---

## Ecosystem

```
polymarket-executor    ← Thi...