polymarket-ai-divergence

# Polymarket AI Divergence Trader

Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade the edge.

> **This is a template.** The default logic trades when AI divergence exceeds 2% on zero-fee markets, using Kelly sizing capped at 25%. Remix it with different edge thresholds, sizing strategies, or additional filters (e.g., only trade markets resolving within 7 days). The skill handles plumbing (divergence scanning, fee checks, safeguards, execution). Your agent provides the alpha.

## What It Does

1. **Scans** all active markets for AI vs market price divergence
2. **Filters** to markets with edge above threshold (default 2%) and zero fees
3. **Checks** safeguards (flip-flop detection, existing positions)
4. **Sizes** using Kelly criterion, capped conservatively
5. **Executes** trades on the mispriced side (YES when AI is bullish, NO when bearish)

## Quick Commands

```bash
# Scan only (dry run, no trades)
python ai_divergence.py

# Scan + execute trades
python ai_divergence.py --live

# Only show bullish divergences
python ai_divergence.py --bullish

# Only >15% divergence
python ai_divergence.py --min 15

# JSON output
python ai_divergence.py --json

# Cron mode (quiet, trades only)
python ai_divergence.py --live --quiet

# Show config
python ai_divergence.py --config

# Update config
python ai_divergence.py --set max_bet_usd=10
```

## Configuration

| Key | Env Var | Default | Description |
|-----|---------|---------|-------------|
| `min_divergence` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MIN` | 5.0 | Min divergence % for scanner display |
| `min_edge` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MIN_EDGE` | 0.02 | Min divergence to trade (2%) |
| `max_bet_usd` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_BET` | 5.0 | Max bet per trade |
| `max_trades_per_run` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_MAX_TRADES` | 3 | Max trades per cycle |
| `kelly_cap` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_KELLY_CAP` | 0.25 | Kelly fraction cap |
| `daily_budget` | `SIMMER_DIVERGENCE_DAILY_BUDGET` | 25.0 | Daily spend limit |
| `default_...