OpenClaw

polymarket-arbitrage-cn

Polymarket 套利 | Polymarket Arbitrage. 预测市场套利机会 | Prediction market arbitrage opportunities. 自动发现价格差异 | Auto discover price differences. 触发词：Polymarket、预测市场、套利、arbitrage.

guohongbin-git0 来源安装数☆ 0 仓库 Stars

查看来源 ↗安装与使用 SKILL.md ↗

安装与使用

请根据来源仓库和你的 AI 工具说明安装此技能。先阅读技能文件和依赖要求，再添加到工作流。

SkillHub CLI

skillhub install guohongbin-git/polymarket-arbitrage-cn

打开来源仓库，查看说明和兼容环境后，按来源提供的命令或步骤安装。

将来源链接提供给你的 Agent，让它先读取说明、核对依赖，并向你说明将执行的安装步骤。

查看来源 ↗使用指南

技能说明

Polymarket Arbitrage

Find and execute arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket prediction markets.

Quick Start

1. Paper Trading (Recommended First Step)

Run a single scan to see current opportunities:

cd skills/polymarket-arbitrage
pip install requests beautifulsoup4
python scripts/monitor.py --once --min-edge 3.0

View results in polymarket_data/arbs.json

2. Continuous Monitoring

Monitor every 5 minutes and alert on new opportunities:

python scripts/monitor.py --interval 300 --min-edge 3.0

Stop with Ctrl+C

3. Understanding Results

Each detected arbitrage includes:

net_profit_pct: Edge after 2% fees
risk_score: 0-100, lower is better
volume: Market liquidity
action: What to do (buy/sell all outcomes)

Good opportunities:

Net profit: 3-5%+
Risk score: <50
Volume: $1M+
Type: math_arb_buy (safer)

Arbitrage Types Detected

Math Arbitrage (Primary Focus)

Type A: Buy All Outcomes (prob sum < 100%)

Safest type
Guaranteed profit if executable
Example: 48% + 45% = 93% → 7% edge, ~5% net after fees

Type B: Sell All Outcomes (prob sum > 100%)

Riskier (requires liquidity)
Need capital to collateralize
Avoid until experienced

See references/arbitrage_types.md for detailed examples and strategies.

Cross-Market Arbitrage

Same event priced differently across markets (not yet implemented - requires semantic matching).

Orderbook Arbitrage

Requires real-time orderbook data (homepage shows midpoints, not executable prices).

Scripts

fetch_markets.py

Scrape Polymarket homepage for active markets.

python scripts/fetch_markets.py --output markets.json --min-volume 50000

Returns JSON with market probabilities, volumes, and metadata.

detect_arbitrage.py

Analyze markets for arbitrage opportunities.

python scripts/detect_arbitrage.py markets.json --min-edge 3.0 --output arbs.json

Accounts for:

2% taker fees (per leg) -...

来源信息

Source: github
Repository: openclaw/skills
Path: skills/guohongbin-git/polymarket-arbitrage-cn
Version: —
Commit: 2c3fc3d07c756f886da9617bd4800f9cdd4d920f
分类来源: rules
状态: active
可见性: public

这些信息来自收录时的来源分析，可能滞后；使用前请核对最新来源文件。

来源内容

SKILL.md

# Polymarket Arbitrage

Find and execute arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket prediction markets.

## Quick Start

### 1. Paper Trading (Recommended First Step)

Run a single scan to see current opportunities:

```bash
cd skills/polymarket-arbitrage
pip install requests beautifulsoup4
python scripts/monitor.py --once --min-edge 3.0
```

View results in `polymarket_data/arbs.json`

### 2. Continuous Monitoring

Monitor every 5 minutes and alert on new opportunities:

```bash
python scripts/monitor.py --interval 300 --min-edge 3.0
```

Stop with `Ctrl+C`

### 3. Understanding Results

Each detected arbitrage includes:
- **net_profit_pct**: Edge after 2% fees
- **risk_score**: 0-100, lower is better
- **volume**: Market liquidity
- **action**: What to do (buy/sell all outcomes)

Good opportunities:
- Net profit: 3-5%+
- Risk score: <50
- Volume: $1M+
- Type: `math_arb_buy` (safer)

## Arbitrage Types Detected

### Math Arbitrage (Primary Focus)

**Type A: Buy All Outcomes** (prob sum < 100%)
- Safest type
- Guaranteed profit if executable
- Example: 48% + 45% = 93% → 7% edge, ~5% net after fees

**Type B: Sell All Outcomes** (prob sum > 100%)
- Riskier (requires liquidity)
- Need capital to collateralize
- Avoid until experienced

See `references/arbitrage_types.md` for detailed examples and strategies.

### Cross-Market Arbitrage

Same event priced differently across markets (not yet implemented - requires semantic matching).

### Orderbook Arbitrage

Requires real-time orderbook data (homepage shows midpoints, not executable prices).

## Scripts

### fetch_markets.py

Scrape Polymarket homepage for active markets.

```bash
python scripts/fetch_markets.py --output markets.json --min-volume 50000
```

Returns JSON with market probabilities, volumes, and metadata.

### detect_arbitrage.py

Analyze markets for arbitrage opportunities.

```bash
python scripts/detect_arbitrage.py markets.json --min-edge 3.0 --output arbs.json
```

Accounts for:
- 2% taker fees (per leg)
-...

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