polymarket-oracle

# Polymarket Oracle — Multi-Strategy Arbitrage Bot

## 🎯 WHAT IT DOES

**Scans ALL Polymarket markets for profitable opportunities.**

**Markets covered:**
- ✅ **Crypto** (BTC, ETH, altcoins - 5min, 15min, daily markets)
- ✅ **Politics** (Elections, policy, polls, debates)
- ✅ **Sports** (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, Soccer, UFC, Tennis, Golf)
- ✅ **Economics** (Fed rates, CPI, jobs, GDP, stock markets)
- ✅ **Technology** (Apple, Tesla, Google, IPOs, launches)
- ✅ **Entertainment** (Oscars, Emmys, box office, celebrities)
- ✅ **Weather** (Hurricanes, temperatures, climate events)
- ✅ **Miscellaneous** (Viral events, trends, binary outcomes)

**Total:** 1000-5000+ markets scanned continuously

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## 🔥 STRATEGIES DETECTED

### **1. Parity Arbitrage**

**What:** YES + NO prices don't sum to $1.00

```
YES price: $0.45
NO price: $0.52
Total: $0.97

Buy both → Guaranteed payout: $1.00
Profit: $0.03 (3.1%)

Risk: ZERO (guaranteed profit)
```

**Frequency:** 5-20 per day  
**Duration:** 2-15 seconds  
**Win rate:** 100% (if executed)

---

### **2. Logical Arbitrage**

**What:** Impossible price combinations between related markets

```
Market A: "Chiefs win Super Bowl" = 28%
Market B: "AFC team wins" = 24%

Impossible! Chiefs ARE an AFC team!

Buy "AFC wins" at 24%
If Chiefs win (28%) → AFC wins → Profit
If other AFC wins → Profit
Cannot lose unless NFC wins
```

**Frequency:** 2-10 per day  
**Duration:** Minutes to hours  
**Win rate:** 90-95%

---

### **3. Tail-End Trading**

**What:** Buy highly certain outcomes (>95%) just before resolution

```
Event: Fed keeps rates (99% certain)
Market price: $0.97

Buy at $0.97
Resolution: $1.00
Profit: $0.03 (3.1%)

Risk: Very low (event almost certain)
```

**Frequency:** 10-30 per day  
**Duration:** Hours to days  
**Win rate:** 95-98%

---

### **4. Market Making**

**What:** Provide liquidity, earn spread + maker rebates

```
Token midpoint: $0.50

Place orders:
BID: $0.475 (maker)
ASK: $0.525 (maker)

Spread capture: $...

# Polymarket Oracle 🎯

**Multi-strategy arbitrage bot for Polymarket prediction markets**

[![License: MIT](https://img.shields.io/badge/License-MIT-yellow.svg)](https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT)
[![Version](https://img.shields.io/badge/version-1.0.0-blue.svg)](https://github.com/georges91560/polymarket-oracle)
[![Python](https://img.shields.io/badge/python-3.7+-blue.svg)](https://python.org)

Multi-Strategy · All Markets · Real-Time Scanning · Telegram Alerts

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## 🎯 What It Does

Automatically scans **ALL Polymarket markets** for profitable opportunities:

✅ **1000-5000 markets** scanned every minute  
✅ **7 categories** covered (crypto, politics, sports, economics, etc.)  
✅ **6 strategies** detected (parity, logical, tail-end, market making, latency, combinatorial)  
✅ **50 parallel workers** for fast scanning  
✅ **Telegram alerts** when opportunities found  

---

## 💰 Strategies Explained

### **1. Parity Arbitrage (Easiest)**

```
When: YES + NO ≠ $1.00
Example:
  YES = $0.45
  NO = $0.52
  Total = $0.97

Action: Buy both
Cost: $0.97
Payout: $1.00 (guaranteed)
Profit: $0.03 (3.1%)

Risk: ZERO
Win rate: 100%
```

---

### **2. Tail-End Trading (Safest)**

```
When: Outcome >95% certain
Example:
  "Fed keeps rates" = 99% certain
  Market price = $0.97

Action: Buy at $0.97
Payout: $1.00
Profit: $0.03 (3.1%)

Risk: Very low
Win rate: 95-98%
```

---

### **3. Logical Arbitrage (Smartest)**

```
When: Related markets mispriced
Example:
  "Chiefs win Super Bowl" = 28%
  "AFC team wins" = 24%
  
  Impossible! Chiefs ARE AFC!

Action: Buy "AFC wins" @ 24%
  If Chiefs win (28%) → Profit
  If other AFC wins → Profit
  Cannot lose unless NFC wins

Risk: Low
Win rate: 90-95%
```

---

### **4. Market Making (Most Consistent)**

```
When: Provide liquidity
Example:
  Midpoint = $0.50
  
Action:
  BID @ $0.475 (maker)
  ASK @ $0.525 (maker)
  
Spread: $0.05 (10%)
+ Maker rebates
+ Liquidity rewards

Monthly: 10-25% annualized
```

---

### **5. Latency Arbi...