prediction-market-arbitrageur

# Purpose

Use this meta-skill to coordinate three existing ClawHub skills into one causal arbitrage workflow:

1. Detect new high-signal news about a target event.
2. Fetch current market-implied probability from Polymarket.
3. Compare `news confidence` vs `market probability`.
4. Emit actionable alert, optionally followed by explicit execution guidance.

This skill does not replace the underlying skills. It defines how to combine them correctly.

# Required Installed Skills

This meta-skill assumes these are already installed locally:

- `topic-monitor` (inspected: latest `1.3.4`)
- `polymarket-odds` (inspected: latest `1.0.0`)
- `simmer-weather` (inspected: latest `1.7.1`, execution proxy pattern)

Install/refresh with ClawHub:

```bash
npx -y clawhub@latest install topic-monitor
npx -y clawhub@latest install polymarket-odds
npx -y clawhub@latest install simmer-weather
npx -y clawhub@latest update --all
```

Verify:

```bash
npx -y clawhub@latest list
python3 skills/topic-monitor/scripts/monitor.py --help
node skills/polymarket-odds/polymarket.mjs --help
python3 skills/simmer-weather/weather_trader.py --help
```

If any command fails, stop and report missing dependency or wrong install path.

# Inputs the LM Must Collect First

- `ceo_name`
- `company_name`
- `event_hypothesis` (for example: `CEO X resigns within 30 days`)
- `market_query` (for polymarket search)
- `topic_id` (stable ID in `topic-monitor`)
- `monitor_interval_minutes` (default: `5`)
- `min_news_confidence` (default: `0.80`)
- `min_delta` (default: `0.25`)
- `execution_mode` (`alert-only` or `execution-plan`)

Do not continue with implicit trading assumptions if these are missing.

# Skill Responsibilities (What Each Tool Actually Does)

## `topic-monitor`

Use for continuous signal discovery and scoring.

Operationally relevant behavior:
- Topic config via `scripts/manage_topics.py`.
- Monitoring loop via `scripts/monitor.py`.
- Priority/score generated by its scoring logic.
- Alert queue retriev...