polymarket-elon-tweets

# Polymarket Elon Tweet Trader

Trade "Elon Musk # tweets" markets on Polymarket using XTracker post count data.

## When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when the user wants to:
- Trade Elon Musk tweet count markets automatically
- Set up @noovd-style bucket trading
- Check XTracker pace and stats for current tweet events
- Monitor and exit existing tweet market positions
- Configure bucket spread or entry thresholds

## How the Strategy Works

Polymarket runs weekly "How many tweets will Elon post?" events with range buckets (e.g., 200-219, 220-239, 240-259). Exactly one bucket resolves YES = $1. The strategy:

1. **Get XTracker pace** — XTracker tracks Elon's real-time post count and projects the final total
2. **Find center bucket** — The bucket containing XTracker's projected pace
3. **Buy adjacent buckets** — Buy the center + neighbors (configurable spread)
4. **Check combined cost** — Only buy if the sum of bucket prices < $1 (the +EV threshold)
5. **One bucket pays $1** — When the event resolves, one of your buckets pays $1, covering costs

## Setup Flow

When user asks to install or configure this skill:

1. **Install the Simmer SDK**
   ```bash
   pip install simmer-sdk
   ```

2. **Ask for Simmer API key**
   - They can get it from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab
   - Store in environment as `SIMMER_API_KEY`

3. **Ask for wallet private key** (required for live trading)
   - This is the private key for their Polymarket wallet (the wallet that holds USDC)
   - Store in environment as `WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY`
   - The SDK uses this to sign orders client-side automatically — no manual signing needed

4. **Ask about settings** (or confirm defaults)
   - Max bucket sum: Combined price threshold (default 90¢)
   - Max position: Amount per bucket (default $5.00)
   - Bucket spread: How many neighbors to buy (default 1 = center ± 1)
   - Exit threshold: When to sell (default 65¢)

5. **Save settings to config.json or environment variables**

6. **Set up cron** (d...