polymarket-arbitrage-cn

# Polymarket Arbitrage

Find and execute arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket prediction markets.

## Quick Start

### 1. Paper Trading (Recommended First Step)

Run a single scan to see current opportunities:

```bash
cd skills/polymarket-arbitrage
pip install requests beautifulsoup4
python scripts/monitor.py --once --min-edge 3.0
```

View results in `polymarket_data/arbs.json`

### 2. Continuous Monitoring

Monitor every 5 minutes and alert on new opportunities:

```bash
python scripts/monitor.py --interval 300 --min-edge 3.0
```

Stop with `Ctrl+C`

### 3. Understanding Results

Each detected arbitrage includes:
- **net_profit_pct**: Edge after 2% fees
- **risk_score**: 0-100, lower is better
- **volume**: Market liquidity
- **action**: What to do (buy/sell all outcomes)

Good opportunities:
- Net profit: 3-5%+
- Risk score: <50
- Volume: $1M+
- Type: `math_arb_buy` (safer)

## Arbitrage Types Detected

### Math Arbitrage (Primary Focus)

**Type A: Buy All Outcomes** (prob sum < 100%)
- Safest type
- Guaranteed profit if executable
- Example: 48% + 45% = 93% → 7% edge, ~5% net after fees

**Type B: Sell All Outcomes** (prob sum > 100%)
- Riskier (requires liquidity)
- Need capital to collateralize
- Avoid until experienced

See `references/arbitrage_types.md` for detailed examples and strategies.

### Cross-Market Arbitrage

Same event priced differently across markets (not yet implemented - requires semantic matching).

### Orderbook Arbitrage

Requires real-time orderbook data (homepage shows midpoints, not executable prices).

## Scripts

### fetch_markets.py

Scrape Polymarket homepage for active markets.

```bash
python scripts/fetch_markets.py --output markets.json --min-volume 50000
```

Returns JSON with market probabilities, volumes, and metadata.

### detect_arbitrage.py

Analyze markets for arbitrage opportunities.

```bash
python scripts/detect_arbitrage.py markets.json --min-edge 3.0 --output arbs.json
```

Accounts for:
- 2% taker fees (per leg)
-...