scenario-war-room

# Scenario War Room

Model cascading what-if scenarios across all business functions. Not single-assumption stress tests — compound adversity that shows how one problem creates the next.

## Keywords
scenario planning, war room, what-if analysis, risk modeling, cascading effects, compound risk, adversity planning, contingency planning, stress test, crisis planning, multi-variable scenario, pre-mortem

## Quick Start

```bash
python scripts/scenario_modeler.py   # Interactive scenario builder with cascade modeling
```

Or describe the scenario:
```
/war-room "What if we lose our top customer AND miss the Q3 fundraise?"
/war-room "What if 3 engineers quit AND we need to ship by Q3?"
/war-room "What if our market shrinks 30% AND a competitor raises $50M?"
```

## What This Is Not

- **Not** a single-assumption stress test (that's `/em:stress-test`)
- **Not** financial modeling only — every function gets modeled
- **Not** worst-case-only — models 3 severity levels
- **Not** paralysis by analysis — outputs concrete hedges and triggers

## Framework: 6-Step Cascade Model

### Step 1: Define Scenario Variables (max 3)
State each variable with:
- **What changes** — specific, quantified if possible
- **Probability** — your best estimate
- **Timeline** — when it hits

```
Variable A: Top customer (28% ARR) gives 60-day termination notice
  Probability: 15% | Timeline: Within 90 days

Variable B: Series A fundraise delayed 6 months beyond target close
  Probability: 25% | Timeline: Q3

Variable C: Lead engineer resigns
  Probability: 20% | Timeline: Unknown
```

### Step 2: Domain Impact Mapping

For each variable, each relevant role models impact:

| Domain | Owner | Models |
|--------|-------|--------|
| Cash & runway | CFO | Burn impact, runway change, bridge options |
| Revenue | CRO | ARR gap, churn cascade risk, pipeline |
| Product | CPO | Roadmap impact, PMF risk |
| Engineering | CTO | Velocity impact, key person risk |
| People | CHRO | Attrition cascade, hiring free...